Tng quan lc lng qun s ti Bin ng

TS.Hoang NamTS.Hoang Nam
Trung Quc v th p o so vi cc nc v vng lnh th khc trong tranh chp Bin ng. Tng quan lc lng c chiu hng tip tc nghing mnh v pha Trung Quc trong tng lai vi tc tng trng chng mt . Trc cng thng gia tng ti Bin ng, c xu hng chuyn dch trong chin lc ca cc nc trong khu vc t “phng th” sang “phng th t xa”, tch cc mua sm, sn xut cc v kh ti tn, hng nng.
Sc mnh trn bin ca mi quc gia c o c bng sc mnh hi qun v khng qun. Trn chin trng ny, qun s khng c nhiu ngha so vi mc hin i ca cc loi phng tin, v kh, v kh ti chin tranh, v kh nng hip ng tc chin gia cc n v, v tr a l ca cc cn c qun s v nng lc hu cn.
Trung Quc l nc sc mnh tn cng ln nht trong khu vc xung quanh Bin ng v kh nng tip tc tng ln nhanh chng. Lc lng hi qun ca Trung Quc ln ti 255.000 qun vi 75 n v tham chin, hn 60 tu ngm, 55 tu b loi ln v loi va v khong 70 tu tun tra c trang b tn la, cc radar Sky Wave v Surface Wave OTH; 2 tu ngm tn cng chy bng nng lng ht nhn lp SHANG loi 093 v mt tu SSBN lp JIN, 4 tu SSN lp HNN v SSBN lp XIA v khong 13 tu ngm chy bng ng c diezel, nc ny vn tip tc tp trung u t trang b cho lc lc hi qun ca mnh. Gn y Trung Quc tip nhn 2 tu khu trc lp LUYANG II thuc loi 052C, 2 tu khu trc lp LUZHOU thuc loi 051C c trang b tn la tm xa t i khng SA-N-20 ca Nga, 4 tu khinh hm c trang b tn la dn ng lp JIANGKAI II lp 054A. Trung Quc cng tip tc thit k tu chin lp HOUBEI loi 022. Hn 40 tu tun tra loi ny c a vo s dng. Mi tu c th mang c 8 tn la hnh trnh i hm YJ-83. ng thi, Trung Quc d kin s trang b cc tu ngm tn cng lp YUAN. Hin ti mt tu lp ny c a vo s dng, mt chic khc ang trong giai on chy th v s ng thm 15 tu ngm lp YUAN.[1]

Lc lng khng qun Trung Quc hin c khong 330.000 qun[2] vi 490 my bay nh loi my bay nh chn F-7/FISHBED v F-8II/FINBA, 23 my bay Su-30MK2/FLANKER cho tc chin trn bin tm xa. Trung Quc trin khai 8 tiu on SAM tm xa (200 km) SA-20 PMU-2 ca Nga v Trung Quc s nhn thm 8 tiu on loi ny na trong vng 2 nm ti. c bit, Trung Quc tip tc tp trung pht trin loi my bay cnh bo sm (AEW&C) bao gm KJ-200 v KJ-2000 tng cng kh nng trinh st trn bin; ng thi, d nh mua Su-33, 34 my bay vn ti IL-76 v 4 my bay tip du IL-78 ca Nga.[3] ng ch l cc lng lng hi qun v khng qun ca Trung Quc c th hip ng tc chin thng qua mt h thng v tinh hin i. Trung Quc c h thng v tinh do thm phc v cho qun s nh: v tinh Yaogan 1,2,3,4,5, v tinh Haiyang-1B v tinh CBERS-2 v 2B. Trong tng lai, Trung Quc s lp t thm 8 v tinh mi. Hin ti, Trung Quc ang s dng h thng nh v ton cu GPS ca M, GLONASS ca Nga v Bc u-1; d kin, nm 2011, Trung Quc s trin khai Bc u-2.[4]
Bo co cho Quc hi M v “Hin i ha Hi qun ca Trung Quc: H ly cho cc kh nng hi qun ca M” nm 2009 cho bit “cc n lc hin i ha hi qun bao gm nhiu chng trnh xy dng v kh, bao gm tn la n o chng tu chin, tn la t i khng, mn, my bay, tu ngm, tu khu trc, tu tun tra, v cc tu b. ng ch nht l bo co cho rng Trung Quc s sm bt u chng trnh xy dng tu sn bay. Hin ti Trung Quc bt u o to 20 phi cng li my bay cho tu sn bay, v ang m phn vi Nga mua 50 my bay Su 33.[5] Theo bo co ca B Quc phng M u nm 2009, cc chuyn gia ca M cho rng Trung Quc s khng c c tu sn bay t ng c kh nng hot ng tt, cng vi i tu km theo trc 2015. Tuy nhin, thay i trong kh nng ng tu ca Trung Quc v s gip t bn ngoi c th thay i tin trnh ny. Trung Quc d kin xy dng nhiu tu sn bay t 2020.[6] y thc s l din tin ng lo ngi cho cc quc gia ng Nam ang tranh chp ch quyn, lnh th Bin ng. Vi kh nng v phm vi hot ng ca tu sn bay, ha lc, kh nng tc chin v hu cn ca hi qun Trung Quc tng ln gp bi. Cn c qun s - quc phng ca cc nc khc trn cc o ti Bin ng khng cn kh nng phng th.

i Loan c mt h thng phng th hi – khng qun mnh. Mi e da t Trung Quc i lc buc i Loan lin tc tng cng cc kh nng phng v. Chnh quyn i Loan u tin pht trin cc kh nng hi qun v khng qun vi s gip t pha M. Nm 2008, chnh quyn M thng bo h thng qua hp ng bn v kh cho i Loan tr gi 6,4 t USD. Mt phn ca hp ng ny c xut t nm 2001, nhng b dng li do s phn i t Quc hi i Loan v t pha Trung Quc.[7] Nh vy, nhng v kh mi nht m i Loan mua c t pha M gm: 330 tn la Patriot hin i (tr gi 3,1 t USD), 30 my bay trc thng tn cng Apache, v 32 tn la Harpoon, v 182 tn la hnh trnh Javeliin, v 4 h thng E-2T.[8] Hin nay, lc lng hi qun ca i Loan gm 45.000 lnh, c trang b 4 tu ngm (loi Hai Lung v Hai Shih), 26 khu trc hm v 22 tu chin, 70 tu tun duyn, 12 tu phng v ph ng li, 2 tu b. Lc lng khng qun gm 55.000 lnh vi 478 my bay chin u cc loi v 34 trc thng.[9] Lc lng tn la gm 6 h thng tn la t i khng SAM; 6 h thng tn la PAC -3; 6 h thng Tien Kung (Sky Bowl)

Malaysia c lc lng hi qun v khng qun ng gm trong khu vc. Lc lng hi qun ca nc ny gm 14.000 qun[10] v y l mt lc lng nhn c nhiu u i ca chnh ph. Mc d hin nay Ma-lai-xia ang s hu mt lc lng tu chin kh ln nhng Malaysia vn tip tc ra nhng ch trng pht trin mi m hn. c bit v ng lu nht l d n mua 2 tu ngm lp “Scorpene” chy bng ng c diesel. Ngy 03/9, chic tu ngm u tin chnh thc v ti Malaysia, n ngy 17/9 tu ny s v ti cn c tu ngm ti vnh Sepanggar. B trng Quc phng Ma-lai-xi-a Ahmad Zahid nhn mnh, Ma-lai-xi-a s xut ng thm cc tu ngm mi trong tng lai nu cn thit v ti chnh cho php.[11] iu ny chng t rng, vic pht trin mt hm i tu ngm v ang c Malaysia tin hnh. ng thi, hi qun Ma-lai-xi-a cng ang xem xt kh nng mua trc thng tun tra ca Hng Embraer v Lockheed Martin, cng nh k hoch mua my bay khng ngi li phc v tun tra khu vc eo bin Ma-lc-ca v bin ng.

Khng lc ca Ma-lai-xi-a gm 15.000 qun[12] c hin i ha vi nhng hp ng mua trang thit b, v kh tr gi hng triu -la vi Nga, Php v M. T u nm 2003, B Quc phng Ma-lai-xi-a xc tin mt s d n mua sm trang b nh: d n mua 18 my bay chin u Su-30MKM m Ma-lai-xi-a k vi Nga thng 8 nm 2003 vi tng tr gi 900 triu USD. Trong , 6 chic nhn hi thng 09 nm 2007, tip nhn 6 chic vo thng 11 nm 2008 v 6 chic cn li s nhn vo cui nm 2009; d n mua 12 my bay trc thng EC-725 ca hng Eurocopter trc nm 2011 thay th s my bay trc thng loi Nuri S61A-4 ht hn s dng; t nm 2013-2014, khng qun Ma-lai-xi-a s tip nhn 4 my bay A-400M ca hng Airbus v mt s d n my bay khc nh: mua 08 my bay cnh bo sm v Ch huy trn khng (AEWAC), d n nng cp my bay F/A-18D.[13]
Ngoi nhng d n quan trng trn, Ma-lai-xi-a tip tc nghin cu v t ch to cc my bay khng ngi li, vi mc ch tng cng kh nng hot ng tnh bo, trinh st, do thm v chin u cho qun i. Ngy 3 thng 8 nm 2009, hng thng tn (Bernama) ca Malaysia cho bit, u nm 2010, qun i nc ny s thc hin chuyn bay u tin ca my bay khng ngi li (UAV) loi Aludra. M qun i Malaysia trin khai ti khu vc b bin Pandanan v Sipadan. V h thng v tinh, hin Ma-lai-xi-a t mua 9 ra-a tc chin ca M nhm tng cng kh nng kim sot khu vc bin Xa-ba. Loi ra-a ny c chc nng thu thp hnh nh v truyn d liu v s ch huy tc chin.
Sc mnh tn cng trn bin ca Vit Nam tng i hn ch, c cu lc lng thin v hng phng th. V hi qun, Vit Nam ang dn hin i ha v s lng v cht lng tng kh nng chin u cho lc lng hi qun 13.000 qun[14] ca mnh. in hnh nh vic Vit Nam t ng 3 tu chin c nh, t mua 5000 thit b t n tn trang li ba tu chin loi Petya v hin i ha h thng ra-a cu h b bin.[15] Vit Nam ang ch trng u t vo cc tu chin nh cao tc, mang tn la chng hm m bo kim sot 1000 km vng lnh hi nh vic t mua thm 2 tu chin c kh nng tng hnh, sn tu ngm v chng hm Gepard, ci tin tu Molnya, BPS-500… Theo cc ngun tin nc ngoi, Vit Nam thng tho vi Nga mua 6 tu ngm tn cng Kilo lp 636 chy bng diesel tng cng kh nng phng th.[16] V khng qun, Vit Nam ang tng cng hin i ha cho lc lng khng qun gm 30.000 qun[17] ca mnh. Hin, Vit Nam c khong 64 my bay cng kch (Su-22, 27, 30), 140 my bay chin u MIG-21, 26 chic trc thng v trang Mi-24, 4 chic my bay trinh st bin Be-12.[18] Tuy nhin, ngn sch quc phng ca Vit Nam c v cha cho php Vit Nam t mua thm 8 chic my bay chin u Su-30MK m khng lc Vit Nam ang cn b sung vo 4 chic Su-30S Vit Nam mua vo nm 2004.[19] C v nh i vi Vit Nam, nhng trang thit b phng th ca phng Ty l nhng mn t tin. Tuy nhin, s sa i nhng iu khon trong Cc Quy tc Lu thng V kh Quc t ca chnh ph M thng 4/2007 cho php M xem xt vic xut khu nhng v kh khng gy t vong cho Vit Nam trn c s tng trng hp c th, m ng cho cc cuc m phn s b v kh nng bn cc trc thng Chinook CH-47D. V h thng v tinh, thng 4 nm 2008, cng ty Arianespace ca Php phng v tinh u tin ca Vit Nam, Vinasat-1, t cn c Korou, French Guiana. V tinh Vinasat-1 s ng vai tr quan trng trong vic tng cng bo v c lp v an ninh ca qun i Vit Nam cng nh cc thng tin v tinh dn s.

Kh nng tn cng v phng ng ca Phi-lip-pin trn Bin ng hin nay l rt yu so vi Trung Quc v Ma-lay-sia. V hi qun, theo chng trnh hin i ha qun i Phi-lp-pin, lc lng hi qun gm 24.000 ngi[20] ca nc ny c th c tng cng thm cc tu mi vo nm 2017. Tng thng Gloria Arroyo ch o tm cch y nhanh qu trnh hin i ha Hi qun, khng nhng tng cng bo v an ninh ch quyn bin, o m cn gn gi mi trng an ninh i dng. Tuy nhin, theo B Quc phng Phi-lp-pin, s phi mt thm 2 n 3 nm na cc thit b ny v ti Phi-lp-pin. V khng qun, khng lc vi 16.000 qun[21] ca Phi-lp-pin va c trang b trc thng chin u c kh nng tc chin bn m song khng phi dnh cho chin lc ca Phi-lp-pin trn bin ng m p ng cc nhim v gii quyt lc lng qun ni dy min Nam nc ny. Va qua, Phi-lp-pin tip nhn mt s trc thng chin u UH-1H. Nm 2008, Phi-lp-pin khng thnh cng vi k hoch mua 6 trc thng chin u MD530F loi mt ng c ca tp on MD Helicopters. Phi-lp-pin ang cn nhc vic mua hn 10 trc thng AH-1 Cobra m hi qun M ang s dng. Nhiu kh nng hp ng mua sm my bay AH-1 Cobra s c hai bn thc hin vo cui nm 2009. Ngoi ra, Phi-lp-pin cng ang nhn c li xut nng cp cc my bay AH-1 ca nc ny t I-xra-en.[22]
Tng quan lc lng khu vc(2007)[23]
Lc lng qun s ca Bru-ny khng phi l mi e da cho lc lng qun s ca cc quc gia v vng lnh th khc trong tranh chp Bin ng. Qun i Bru-ny c 7.000 lnh trong qun s ca lc qun l 4.900, ca hi qun l 1.000 ngi, v khng qun l 1.100.[24] Ngn sch quc phng ca B-ru-ny cn rt khim tn so vi cc quc gia khc. Tuy nhin, trc sc nng ca tnh hnh trn bin ng B-ru-ny ang tm cch hin i ha v kin ton sc mnh qun s ca mnh. Ngy 12/10/2008, Quc vng Brunei, Hassanal Bolkiah, thm Nga v c cc cuc gp vi cc quan chc ca Tp on xut khu v kh Rosoboronexport m phn v kh nng mua v kh ca Nga trong tng lai. Thng 6/2009, cc cuc th nghim trn bin ca tu tun tra u tin lp mi dng cho hi qun Brunei c bt u. Tnh n thi im ny, cha c bt k cng ty no cng nh lnh o Bru-ny khng nh chnh thc vic k kt hp ng ng tu, tuy nhin cc ngun tin trong t hp cng nghip quc phng c cho rng xng ng tu ca c nhn c n t hng ng mt vi tu tun tra t quc vng Brunei.

Tm li, so snh t mi gc ca sc mnh, chng ta thy Trung Quc v th p o so vi cc nc v vng lnh th khc trong tranh chp Bin ng. Tng quan lc lng c chiu hng tip tc nghing mnh v pha Trung Quc trong tng lai vi tc tng trng chng mt ca nn kinh t v ngn sch quc phng ca nc ny. iu ng ch l hin nay, c xu hng chuyn dch trong chin lc ca cc nc trong khu vc t “phng th” sang “phng th t xa”, tch cc mua sm, sn xut cc v kh ti tn, hng nng. Trung Quc lun lp lun rng, n lc hin i ha qun s ca Trung Quc l nhm mc tiu phng th. Tuy nhin, trong thi gian tr li y, Trung Quc ngy cng c nhiu biu hin ph din sc mnh, tng cng s hin din qun s bn ngoi lnh th Trung Quc, v quan chc qun s nc ny cng khai ni n cc nh tip tc nng cp thc lc qun s - quc phng. Qun i Gii phng Nhn dn Trung Hoa gi tu chin n vnh Aden tham gia tn cng cp bin, tch cc trin khai k hoch xy tu sn bay vi tham vng tr thnh cng quc hi qun. Cc hc gi Trung Quc bt u bn lun v cc kh nng trin khai cc cn c qun s nc ngoi.[25]
Theo nghiencuubiendong.vn

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[1] http://www.defenselink.mi>lpubs/pdfs/China_Militar>y_Power_Report_2009.pdf

[2] Military Balance 2009

[3] http://www.defenselink.mi>lpubs/pdfs/China_Militar>y_Power_Report_2009.pdf

[4] http://www.defenselink.mi>lpubs/pdfs/China_Militar>y_Power_Report_2009.pdf

[5] Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implicatioin for US Navy Capabilities – Background and Issues for Congress, CRS Report for Congress, July 2009.

[6] http://www.globalsecurity>.orgmilitary/world/china>cv.htm

[7] Phipps, G., US deal breaks “freeze” on arms sale to Taiwan, Jane’s Defense Weekly, 10 Dec 2008, p.38.

[8] Overview of Taiwan’s military, xem ti: http://www.globalsecurity>.orgmilitary/world/taiwa>nintro.htm

[9] Military Balance 2009, tr. 410-412.

[10] The military balance 2009, tr.399.

[11] http://www.dangcongsan.vn>cpv/Modules/Preview/Prin>tPreview.aspx?co_id=30127&cn_id=352146

[12] The military balance 2009, tr.399.

[13] http://www.dangcongsan.vn>cpv/Modules/News/NewsDet>ail.aspx?co_id=30127&cn_id=351257

[14] The military balance 2009, tr. 415.

[15] The military balance 2009, tr. 368

[16] Vietnam Reportedly Set to buy Russian Kilo Class Sub, Defense Industry Daily, 28/4/2009, xem ti: http://www.defenseindustr>ydaily.comVietnam-Report>edly-Set-to-Buy-Russian-Kilo-Class-Subs-05396/

[17] The military balance 2009, tr. 415.

[18] The military balance 2009, tr. 416 - 417.

[19] The military balance 2009, tr. 368.

[20] The military balance 2009, tr. 406.

[21] The military balance 2009, tr.406.

[22] http://www.dangcongsan.vn>cpv/Modules/News/NewsDet>ail.aspx?co_id=30127&cn_id=351254

[23] Tng hp t Military Balance nm 2008

[24] Military Balance 2009, tr.380.

[25] Changes in Beijing’s Approach to Overseas Basing?, China Brief Volume, Vol.9, No. 19, September 24, 2009.




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